Fitch Ratings affirmed the United Arab Emirates long-term issuer default ratings at AA- with a stable outlook. It pointed to strong external assets, low government debt, and resilient oil export revenues.
In its report issued from Riyadh, the agency stated that Abu Dhabi sovereign net foreign assets were estimated at 180 percent of UAE gross domestic product in 2026. This places the country among the highest levels of Fitch-rated sovereigns.
The stable outlook reflects the demonstrated resilience of oil export revenues during the Iran war. This factor largely offsets the immediate negative impact of the conflict, alongside abundant fiscal and external buffers.
Fitch expects individual emirates to bear the cost of the war rather than the federal government. The agency also affirmed Saudi Arabia sovereign credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook in July.
The UAE credit profile is underpinned by high GDP per capita and substantial fiscal buffers. These strengths are balanced by relatively weak governance indicators compared with rating peers, elevated geopolitical risks, and heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
Real GDP in the UAE is forecast to grow by 0.5 percent in 2026. This expansion will be driven by an approximate 7 percent increase in hydrocarbon GDP.
Non-oil GDP is expected to contract by 1.5 percent. Dubai GDP is projected to shrink by close to 5 percent.
The consolidated budget is expected to post a surplus of 4 percent of GDP in 2026. This comes despite a nearly 20 percent increase in spending to cushion the effects of the war and finance large support programs.
Consolidated government debt is projected to edge up to 22.8 percent of GDP in 2026, up from 22.6 percent at the end of 2025. This ratio remains well below the 45 percent median for sovereigns in the AA rating category.
Fitch anticipates a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from the first quarter of 2027. Until then, the agency expects periodic strikes and counterstrikes targeting military sites and ships.
A prolonged deterioration in regional security that disrupts oil and gas exports could put pressure on the UAE rating. Improvements in the consolidated government balance sheet could support an upgrade.
