The midterm congressional elections in the United States have brought a blue wave of victories for the Democratic Party, which secured control of both houses in the new Congress. The shift provides a direct check on President Donald Trump and could strengthen Kyiv’s position against Russia.
Kyrylo, a wounded 37-year-old drone technician recovering from a heavy contusion in a Kyiv hospital after a Russian glide bomb hit his bunker, expressed indifference to силуэты of the US vote. He withheld his last name in accordance with wartime protocol. "We already learned how not to depend on America," he said. He added that Trump had let Ukraine down and sold them to Russia, but they are still standing and fighting.
Under Trump, Washington gradually stopped funding much of Ukraine’s wartime bills. Financial and military aid nearly reached $200bn from the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 to late 2024, but US assistance slowed to a trickle from 2025 onwards. From October 2025 to March, Kyiv received just $8.2bn in military aid from legacy pipelines dating back to former President Joe Biden’s administration, with another $13bn to come when supplies end.
Europe assumed most of the financial burden by providing $83bn in 2025 alone. However, almost a third of all weaponry still comes from US companies, according to the German think tank Kiel Institute. Some aid may now be restored as Democrats have pledged to scrutinise Trump’s ties to Russia and conduct sweeping investigations into alleged corruption within the Trump family.
These investigations will examine ties to Russian politicians, intelligence and oligarchs, including Umar Kremlev, who reportedly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for Donald Trump Jr’s wedding celebrations in the Bahamas in May. Democrats have indicated readiness to issue subpoenas and force the disclosure of executive branch records regarding Ukraine when they take control of Congress on January 3.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, stated that Ukraine’s positions may become stronger, though he emphasised the ongoing need for bipartisan support. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the midterm results by thanking Republicans while pointing to that Democrats clearly state their support for Ukraine and aid provision.
Securing further backing from the US Congress presents challenges as several pro-Ukraine Republicans lost their seats. The blue wave unseated Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus and a staunch Kyiv supporter. Other pro-Ukrainian Republicans who lost include Don Bacon of Nebraska and Mike Lawler of New York.
Kyiv also needs to appoint a new ambassador to Washington after Olha Stefanishyna, a former deputy prime minister, was fired in August during a probe into illegal enrichment. Fesenko noted that the ambassadorial role is vital for working with Congress and organising contacts and lawmaker trips to Ukraine.
Analysts warned that Ukraine would lose out if Democrats push to impeach Trump for a third time. Fesenko said that a third impeachment would carry a negative experience from Trump’s first presidency and form a stable negative attitude towards Ukraine. Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 concerned accusations that he pressured Kyiv to investigate Biden and his son Hunter, and froze $390m in military aid as leverage.
Before the new Congress takes office, Trump is likely to pressure Ukraine to accept a fast-tracked peace deal with Russia. Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych explained that because Russia is unwilling to concede, the fastest way to solve the matter through a truce or frozen war is if Trump twists Kyiv’s arms, making the next two months complicated.
In Moscow, pro-Kremlin commentators weighed in on the shift. Political analyst Andrey Kortunov wrote that Democrats will double down on efforts to prevent Trump from establishing dialogue with Moscow, demand resumed direct military aid to Kyiv, insist on transatlantic unity, and propose new sanctions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed hope that Trump will continue his peacemaking efforts, while the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Moscow’s foreign policies do not depend on the political barometer in other nations.
