Israelis are set to vote in an October 27 election that will determine whether the country moves definitively into hard-right nationalism. Three years after suffering the deadliest single attack in its history, voters will deliver their verdict on veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The trauma of October 7, 2023, remains raw. Faded stickers bearing the haunting smiles of young people killed by Hamas cover station walls and lampposts. At bustling restaurants, diners carry assault rifles, which are now liberally allowed.
Netanyahu is seeking a new mandate after leading a multi-front regional war in response to the attacks. Polls show a tight race for the 77-year-old leader, who has reduced Gaza to rubble, occupied part of Lebanon, and, with US help, bombarded Iran. The relentless Gaza campaign has brought pariah status to Israel in many once-friendly Western countries, and Netanyahu faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
While the public has broadly supported the war’s aims, domestic effects have proved deeply divisive. The conflict has emboldened Netanyahu’s far-right allies, who are bent on reshaping Israel into a religious-nationalist Jewish state.
"I really think that these elections are about the future of the state in a literal sense," said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Israel Democracy Institute.
Netanyahu’s government has ramped up settlements in the occupied West Bank. Settlers armed with the blessing of far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir have attacked Palestinians on their lands with only occasional pushback from authorities.
"The state without a monopoly on the use of force is a failed state," Rahat said.
Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022 by bringing in once-shunned ultra-nationalists and quickly tried to rein in the judiciary, which is examining corruption charges that could land him in jail. The proposed reforms brought out some of the largest protests in Israel’s history before the Hamas attack.
"Everyone in the country has a strong opinion about Netanyahu," said Alon Yakter, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University. "People either hate him or adore him. When you want to see who people vote for, the first question you have to ask is their emotional feelings about Netanyahu."
An informal bloc of parties united around their distaste for Netanyahu is seeking to unseat him. According to polls, his most formidable rival is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, a political novice who wants to unite centrists. Eisenkot’s son died in the Gaza war.
Opposition leaders have zeroed in on why Netanyahu failed to prevent October 7. Netanyahu has denied the charges, blaming security chiefs who he said failed to wake him up that morning.
Eisenkot told a security conference at Reichman University that Netanyahu may have perfect English, but even with perfect English he got Israel October 7. Opposition figures have not criticized the decision to wage war, as a recent survey found only 21 percent of the population identifies as anywhere left of center.
Instead, the opposition has focused on social issues, including Netanyahu’s alliance with ultra-Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu has allowed religious students to remain exempt from military service, a source of deep resentment while stretched reservists serve multiple tours.
Opposition figure Naftali Bennett vowed to end all military service exemptions, stating that social divisions were putting Israel on a slow-motion suicide mission. Meanwhile, Israel’s economy has boomed since October 7, with construction sites dotting major cities and the stock market soaring, led by technology and defense sectors.
Neriah Yarchi, a 19-year-old barber from Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, said he would vote for far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who wants the voluntary removal of Gaza’s two million Palestinians. Netanyahu’s Likud party has put up posters of international critics, reading that they want Netanyahu to lose and telling voters not to let them win.
Netanyahu vowed never to align with parties representing Arab Israelis, who make up around one-fifth of the population. If election results are as close as expected, forming a government could take weeks or months.
Uriel Reichman, a former lawmaker, warned at the Reichman University conference that a Netanyahu triumph could permanently entrench Israel’s right-wing turn.
