Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday in a highly unpredictable runoff vote. Leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is attempting a comeback against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The challenger won the first-round vote three weeks ago, making him the initial favourite after outperforming most pre-election polls.
The gap between the two candidates in the first round was the narrowest ever recorded, at less than two percent of the vote. The 81-year-old president spent much of the runoff campaign focused on voter turnout and stoking fears over what a return to power by a member of the Bolsonaro family could mean for the nation.
The senator has promised that if elected he will pardon his father. With a more conservative congress taking office next year, he has vowed to change the constitution and re-democratise the country, worrying critics who fear he could follow authoritarian steps.
Voter Nuno Rau, a 63-year-old architect and writer, described the choice between two completely different projects for the country. He stated that one option points toward the end of social rights and democracy, while the other represents a leader who fought for income distribution and free public education.
On the other side, 62-year-old lawyer Aparecida Moreira supported Bolsonaro mainly because of his iron fist security policy. The candidate has proposed building five mega prisons inspired by the model used in El Salvador under Nayib Bukele, along with chemical castration for rapists.
Both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula drew large crowds to their final campaign rallies on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. With each side of supporters virtually crystallised, the election is expected to be decided by a small number of undecided voters.
Bolsonaro began the runoff campaign with a lead and the backing of most defeated candidates, but stagnated in the polls while Lula gained ground. Analysts attributed Lula’s momentum to public fears of a Bolsonaro return and controversies surrounding the senator, who is under investigation in two federal police inquiries over alleged corruption and money laundering.
Lula altered his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country. Political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles noted that while Lula’s campaign failed to connect initially, civil society movements drove his growth in the final weeks.
The race in Latin America’s largest country involves an electorate of 159 million voters. Analysts believe that if Lula overturns his first-round defeat, Bolsonaro could refuse to concede, and Donald Trump might refuse to recognise the result.
Telles warned that a Bolsonaro victory would mean losing Brazil to a model of autocracy backed by the United States. Brazil is one of the few countries in the region offering resistance to rightwing political trends.
