The International Court of Justice will deliver a judgment on Thursday morning on whether Myanmar committed genocide against its Rohingya minority. The case marks a key benchmark for international law nearly a decade after a military campaign forced hundreds of thousands of Muslim Rohingya to flee across the border.
The International Court of Justice has never found a state responsible for genocide, a crime defined after the Nazi-led Holocaust. The ruling will have implications for a separate high-profile genocide case against Israel.
Yanghee Lee, a former UN rights investigator to Myanmar, said the ruling will be historic for Rohingya survivors and their families around the world. She added that the international community failed to prevent Myanmar military atrocities against the Rohingya nine years ago and must now seize this opportunity to secure justice.
A key issue in previous cases has been proving intent in a crime defined as acts committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group. Antonia Mulvey, founder of Legal Action Worldwide, said she was cautiously optimistic the court would hold Myanmar fully accountable based on patterns of government conduct.
Mulvey said soldiers attacked villages the same way by targeting civilians, burning homes, separating men and women, and conducting sexual violence. Sexual violence is a key part of showing intent to destroy the group. She described accounts of soldiers mutilating women to stop reproduction and mark victims.
In January, the International Court of Justice held closed-door sessions to hear directly from Rohingya survivors who travelled from camps in Bangladesh. Witnesses described children being thrown into fires and piles of bodies in mass graves. Dawda Jallow, the Gambian justice minister, told the court the case was about real people targeted for destruction.
For decades, Rohingya people have been stripped of citizenship and targeted by discrimination in Rakhine state. The crisis climaxed after a Rohingya militant group launched attacks in the summer of 2017, prompting massive military clearance operations. Refugees fleeing into Bangladesh described massacres in villages such as Tula Toli, where satellite footage later confirmed homes were razed.
A ruling that Myanmar committed genocide would add international pressure on military leader Min Aung Hlaing. He headed the military during the 2017 attacks and later overthrew the elected government in a 2021 coup, triggering a civil war that has left tens of thousands dead.
The decision will also provide a hint of how judges might assess the genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel over its campaign in Gaza. The Biden administration previously considered the Rohingya crisis to be a genocide, though US officials have warned against establishing standards that could affect allied soldiers.
More than one million Rohingya currently live in Bangladesh in the world’s largest refugee settlement, while fewer than 600,000 remain in Myanmar. A displaced Rohingya living inside Myanmar told reporters on Tuesday that he hoped the judgment would help end decades of persecution, bring justice, and secure a safe future for the community in their homeland.
