Republicans entered the midterm elections facing the highest rate of inflation recorded since the spring, following a government report released on Wednesday. Price increases across the United States reached an annual rate of 3.7 percent in September, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure marked an increase from the 3.4 percent rate recorded in August.
This inflation report arrived as opinion polls showed widespread public dissatisfaction with the Trump administration regarding the cost of living. Price increases reached their highest level since the annual inflation rate peaked at a three-year high of 4.2 percent in May. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the overall price increases, jumping 34 percent from the previous year.
Fuel oil used for home heating rose by 74 percent compared with the previous year. Air travel costs also increased by 22.4 percent. Overall consumer prices went up by 0.6 percent from August, while core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, ticked up by 0.3 percent in September to reach 2.6 percent annually.
Officials said that price increases this year have been driven largely by the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which caused global energy prices to soar. Average petrol prices remained over a dollar per gallon higher than the previous year, according to data from AAA. Diesel fuel, which powers domestic supply chains, reached a record high.
September’s inflation rate marked the highest level recorded before a midterm election since 1990, excluding the pandemic period. The economy has consistently emerged as a top issue for American voters as rising petrol prices and persistent inflation erode household budgets. Higher energy costs resulting from the war with Iran have cost American consumers a total of 133 billion dollars, averaging over 1,020 dollars per household, according to Brown University.
In recent weeks, Donald Trump attempted to distance his administration from the price increases, pointing instead to the Iranian government. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the latest data. On Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that Yemen’s Houthi group was attacking Saudi Arabia in an intentional effort to influence the upcoming elections.
They have emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up oil prices, probably prior to the US elections, not nice, he wrote.
Later on Tuesday, Trump defended his economic record during a political rally in Wasilla, Alaska, stating that his support for families had been substantial. Every time they want to try and get me, they say affordability, he told the crowd.
The rising inflation places pressure on the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates to cool prices. The central bank raised interest rates last month for the first time since 2023 due to elevated prices, affecting borrowing costs including mortgages. The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.40 percent.
Inflation in the US has come in higher than expected, in a blow to Donald Trump ahead of November’s midterms, said Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, in a statement. The president has been desperate to show he is getting inflation under control and providing the environment for rate cuts, even going so far as allowing Russian diesel back into the market, but those moves are proving too little too late as the war in the Middle East continues to have a grip on the global economy.
