Global commodity prices are projected to surge by 23 percent this year due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The forecast was published by the World Bank in its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report. Overall commodity prices will retreat by 7 percent in 2027 and 8.8 percent in 2028 as supply constraints gradually ease.
Energy prices are set to jump 32 percent this year before falling 11.5 percent in 2027. These figures represent upward revisions of 7 percent for 2026 and 14 percent for 2027 compared to the bank’s April projections.
Global oil supply is expected to drop by 5.5 million barrels per day, or 5.2 percent, in 2026. This marks the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 pandemic recession. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average 91 US dollars per barrel in 2026, up from 69 US dollars in 2025. Prices will then recede to 79 US dollars per barrel in 2027 and 70 US dollars in 2028.
Higher prices and supply shortages are projected to cut global oil consumption by 2.5 percent, or 2.6 million barrels per day, this year. This represents the third-largest annual drop on record after 2020 and 1980.
European natural gas prices are forecast to surge 58.3 percent in 2026 to 19 US dollars per million British thermal units. This surge is driven by depleted liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, before easing 7.9 percent in 2027.
Food commodity prices are on track to climb 10.3 percent in 2026 and another 7.2 percent in 2027. The increase is driven by higher energy input costs, Black Sea shipping attacks and a strong El Nino weather pattern. Grain prices are projected to rise 14.1 percent this year and 9.3 percent in 2027, led by a 28 percent jump in wheat prices as global wheat output contracts by 3 percent.
Beverage prices are expected to drop 23.9 percent in 2026 as coffee and cocoa production recover. Fertilizer prices are forecast to rise 14.3 percent this year before falling 12.4 percent in 2027. Meanwhile, the World Bank metals and minerals price index is projected to reach an all-time high in 2026, rising 24.5 percent on supply constraints and strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers.
Aluminum, copper and tin prices have all hit records since April. Copper is projected to average 13,200 US dollars per metric ton in 2026, up 32.7 percent year-on-year, before edging down 1.5 percent in 2027. Precious metal prices are forecast to surge 39.9 percent in 2026 on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, before declining 8.3 percent in 2027 as higher interest rates in advanced economies weigh on non-yielding assets.
Gold is projected to average a record 4,600 US dollars per troy ounce in 2026, up 33.6 percent from 2025, before easing to 4,250 US dollars in 2027. Silver is expected to jump 75.9 percent to 70 US dollars per ounce this year.
The report warned of an adverse scenario involving an escalation in the Middle East conflict, prolonged Russian oil outages and severe El Nino crop losses. Under those conditions, Brent crude could average 105 US dollars per barrel in 2027. Food commodity prices would exceed the 2027 baseline forecast by 12 percent, pushing global inflation higher and worsening food insecurity, which affected 779 million people worldwide in 2025.
To help countries cope with fiscal pressures and economic fallout from the conflict, the World Bank Group has made 50 billion to 60 billion US dollars available. Out of this total, 8.7 billion US dollars has already been disbursed to 25 countries.
