Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a narrow two-percentage-point lead over his principal challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, in a projected runoff ahead of next month`s presidential ballot, according to fresh survey data published on Thursday. The findings confirm a deeply polarized electorate with neither frontrunner establishing a decisive advantage.
The statistical gap remains entirely within the margin of error.
In a simulated second-round scenario conducted by pollster Datafolha, Lula secured 47 percent of voter intentions against 45 percent for the right-wing senator. Because the survey incorporates a margin of error of two percentage points, the two percentage point difference represents a technical tie. The figures show a slight bump from last week`s poll, which placed the incumbent at 46 percent against 44 percent for Bolsonaro. In first-round projections, Lula holds 40 percent compared to Bolsonaro`s 36 percent, while minor contenders Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trail with five, four, and three percent respectively.
Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence following convictions related to efforts to overturn his 2022 defeat, while Lula is actively campaigning for a fourth nonconsecutive presidential term. Under Brazilian electoral rules, if no contender secures more than half of the valid ballots cast in the opening round, the top two finishers must advance to a head-to-head runoff. Datafolha sampled 2,002 voters between September 22 and 23, reflecting trends observed in parallel surveys this week by Quaest, which placed Bolsonaro ahead 42 to 41 percent, and BTG Pactual, which recorded Lula leading 46 to 45 percent.
