Final election polls released by public broadcaster KAN and private Channel 12 on Tuesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc trailing the opposition just four days before the vote.
Both surveys projected identical totals for the two main political camps, with the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot winning 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc securing 50 seats. Neither camp reached the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form a government on its own.
According to Channel 12’s survey, Eisenkot’s Yashar party would win 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 20 seats, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 14 seats. KAN’s poll matched these exact figures for the three largest parties.
Other parties projected to win seats in both surveys included Jewish Power led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the Democrats led by Yair Golan. Each of these three factions was projected to secure eight seats in KAN’s survey.
The polls showed differences in seat distributions among smaller factions. The Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance was projected to get nine seats in Channel 12’s poll, compared with seven seats in KAN’s survey. Shas was projected to win seven seats in both polls, while United Torah Judaism was projected to get eight seats by Channel 12 and eight seats by KAN.
For Arab parties, Channel 12 projected eight seats for Hadash-Ta’al and five seats for the United Arab List, alongside four seats for the Hendel-Zelekha alliance. KAN projected nine seats for the joint slate of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, five seats for the United Arab List, and four seats each for the Reservists party and the Economic Party.
In KAN’s tracking, Netanyahu’s bloc fell by one seat from 51 the previous week, while Eisenkot’s camp remained steady at 52 seats. Likud and Yashar each lost one seat, while Bennett’s party gained two seats to reach 14.
On the question of suitability for prime minister, KAN found Netanyahu and Bennett tied at 38 percent for the first time since late August, after Netanyahu previously led Bennett 38 percent to 34 percent. In a matchup against Netanyahu, Eisenkot received 44 percent support compared with Netanyahu’s 38 percent. When pitted against Bennett, Eisenkot drew 35 percent support to Bennett’s 22 percent, while 43 percent of respondents considered neither candidate suitable.
Voter turnout intentions reached 71 percent overall, with 80 percent of opposition supporters and 75 percent of coalition supporters saying they were certain to vote. The survey also showed that 36 percent of voters remained undecided, rising from 30 percent in the previous poll.
Regarding national security, 58 percent of respondents rated the country’s situation as poor, while 37 percent described it as good. The negative assessment reached 73 percent among opposition supporters and 28 percent among governing coalition supporters.
When asked about preferred outcomes if Eisenkot’s camp finished ahead without reaching 61 seats, 27 percent favoured a unity government, 27 percent wanted fresh elections, and 26 percent backed a minority government formed by the change camp with Arab parties abstaining. Among coalition supporters, 47 percent preferred another election, while 45 percent of opposition supporters supported a minority government.
Under Israeli law, publishing new election poll results is prohibited from the end of the Friday preceding Election Day until polling stations close. The Israel Democracy Institute noted that the restriction was adopted in 2007 to prevent misleading information and public opinion manipulation shortly before voting.
