US President Donald Trump may have achieved military successes in various skirmishes against Iran, but three months into the conflict, a critical question is emerging: is he on the verge of losing the war? Iran maintains a firm grip over the Strait of Hormuz, continues to reject concessions on its nuclear program, and its clerical regime remains intact. Consequently, many analysts argue that Trump has yet to translate military victories into a credible geopolitical success.Trump has failed to convert military gains into lasting geopolitical leverage.
Analysts argue that Trump’s claims of a "total victory" are beginning to ring hollow. Trapped between uncertain diplomacy and recurrent threats of further strikes, the administration faces the risk of a severe regional backlash. While both sides are technically in a state of conflict, the fear persists that the US and its Gulf allies may emerge from this confrontation weaker, while Iran—despite its military and economic damage—has secured long-term strategic influence. They have demonstrated an undeniable capacity to disrupt nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.
Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, aptly summarized the sentiment: "It has been three months, and what was planned as a short-term, easy victory for Trump is now turning into a long-term strategic failure." For Trump, this is particularly difficult, as he desperately wants to avoid the appearance of defeat. Yet, he finds himself in a position where the world’s most formidable military has failed to decisively subdue a smaller adversary.
Trump`s war effort now weighs heavily on his domestic political standing. Rising energy prices and lackluster popularity ratings are creating significant problems for his Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections. Currently, Trump faces only two paths: accepting an incomplete compromise to exit the conflict, or intensifying military operations, which could plunge the region into a prolonged crisis.
Trump’s initial promises—to halt Iran`s path to nuclear weaponry, end threats against American interests, and facilitate a regime change—remain unfulfilled. Despite military strikes, it is believed that Iran`s high-grade uranium reserves remain buried and retrievable, potentially incentivizing Tehran to adopt an even more defiant, North Korea-like posture. This conflict has also strained relations with European allies, many of whom have refused to provide support for Trump`s war efforts.
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the outcome of this conflict could be a bigger blow to American credibility than the chaotic withdrawals from Vietnam or Afghanistan. The damage, he suggests, may already be permanent.
